经济发展不平衡、人口迁移与人口老龄化区域差异——基于全国287个地级市的研究

Unbalanced Economic Development,Migration and Regional Differences of Ageing:An Empirical Study with Data of 287 Cities in China

中国区域社会经济发展程度差异巨大,人口转变的起止时间有别、过程有异,故而会导致人口老龄化呈现区域不平衡性。我国自20世纪80年代掀起并持续至今的规模巨大的人口迁移浪潮又势必使得中国人口老龄化的区域不平衡性呈现更多新的特征,甚至是颠覆性的改变。然而沿袭这一思路在地级市层面上探讨人口老龄化的区域不平衡性及其演化趋势的研究并不多见。为此,本文以全国287个地级市为研究对象,基于"五普"和"六普"分县汇总资料,从程度和速度两个角度考察中国人口老龄化区域差异及其演化趋势,并采用多元回归模型探讨经济不平衡和人口迁移是如何重塑人口老龄化的空间分布格局的。结果表明,2000年以来中国人口老龄化的区域差异已经发生逆转,从经济越发达地区人口老龄化程度越高转变成经济欠发达地区的老龄化速度更快、老龄化程度可能更高,经济发达地区的老龄化速度却有所放缓、甚至老龄化程度有所降低。主导这种变化的正是国内大规模的、具有明显方向偏好性和年龄选择性的人口迁移,根本上是缘于地区经济发展水平的不均衡。在规模效应和经济集聚规律作用下,国内人口集聚之势还将继续发展,人口老龄化区域不平衡性将会持续深化,进而加剧地区不平衡。

Due to the regional differences of the social economic development and the progress of population change,the aging of population shows regional imbalance in China. In addition,the most massive migration which is taking place since late 1980 s has been changing the spatial pattern of population ageing in China. However,it is rare to study the regional imbalance and its evolution trend of population aging on the prefecture-level city level. Therefore,based on the fifth and sixth national population census data of 287 prefecture-level cities in China,this paper measures the regional differences and its evolution trend of population ageing in China from the perspectives of ageing degree and speed,and discusses how the unbalanced economic development and large-scale population migration to reshape the spatial distribution pattern of ageing by using the multivariate quantitative model. The findings show that regional imbalances of population aging have changed since 2000 in China. In the original thinking,the ageing degree is higher in the more developed areas. However,the ageing has been faster and even higher in the less developed areas from 2000 to 2010. In addition,the ageing has slowed down in the more developed areas and even declined in several cities. The gap of aging level between East zone and the other three zones（i.e. West,Central,and North-east）has considerably narrowed down. The major factor leading to this change is the large-scale internal migration with obvious age selectivity and orientation preference,which is basically due to imbalance in economic development of regions. Population agglomeration is expected to continue in China,and the regional difference of ageing will deepen,which will in turn exacerbate the imbalance of the different regional economic development.