经济增长与住房价格互动关系异质性研究——基于不同区域及城市分异的双重视角

Research about the Interrelationship Heterogeneity between Economic Growth and Housing Price——From the Perspective of Different Regions and Levels of Cities

以我国288个地级市为研究对象,运用面板数据格兰杰因果检验方法研究了全国、不同区域及不同等级城市经济增长与住房价格之间的互动关系及其差异。结果显示:由于存在区域异质性,我国不同区域及不同等级城市经济增长与房价上涨的格兰杰因果关系存在显著差异,即东部地区经济增长与房价高速上涨互为格兰杰因,而中西部地区表现为房价上涨(率)是经济高速上涨的单向格兰杰因;一二线城市与其余城市房价上涨(率)是经济增长的格兰杰因,而三线城市经济增长是房价高速上涨格兰杰因。因此,在理清两者关系及区域差异基础上实施差别化调控政策平衡经济与房地产业关系,需要建立调控房地产业长效机制,以提高城市实力为着力点有效促进区域协调发展。

This paper employed the interrelationship and its heterogeneity between economic growth and house price increase,with the method of panel data granger causality test, it use 288 prefecture-level cities of China and analyzed in the perspective ofthe whole country, different regions and differentlevels of cities.The resultsindicated as follows： there are significant differences in granger causality between house price and economic growth in different regions and different levels of cities because of the regional heterogeneity. We show that there is bidirectional Granger causality between house price rise rate and economic growth for the easternregion, while there is unidirectiona Granger causality between house price rise rate and economic growth rise speed. There is significant granger causality in second-tier cities and the rest of the cities between house prices rise rate and economic growth. While there is Granger causality between house pricerise rateand economic growth in the third-tier cities.Accordingly, in order to balance economic and real estate relations,we should clarify the relationship between house price and economic growth and implement differentiated regulation policies.We also need to establish a mechanism for regulating the real estate industryvigorously improve cities growth to promote regional development coordinately.