基于因素分解模型的江苏碳排放影响因素分析

Analysis of Influential Factors of Carbon Emissions in Jiangsu Province Based on Factor Decomposition Model

研究江苏碳排放的影响因素,对有的放矢地制定减排政策,发展低碳经济具有重要意义。文章运用对数平均Divisia指数分解法,把2005—2014年间江苏碳排放增长率分解为9种影响因素的加权贡献,并对这一时期以及江苏13个地级市进行分析。结果表明:13个城市生产部门能源强度下降均为减少碳排放的最主要因素,但不同城市间该因素贡献度的差异逐年增大;人均GDP增长是各城市碳排放增加的主要推动因素,但其贡献度正逐年递减;能源结构变动在13个城市的贡献度低且不同城市间贡献度差距较小;产业结构变动在不同城市的贡献度差距逐年增大且排序不稳定;各城市人口数量等对各城市碳排放变动贡献度最小,并不是江苏碳排放的主要驱动因素。

Exploring the influencial factors of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province has great practical and theoretical significance for making emission-reduction policies.In this paper,the logarithmic mean Divisia index decomposition method is used to decompose the carbon emission growth rate of Jiangsu province into 9 kinds of influential factors during the period 2005 to 2014.The period and the 13 prefecture level cities in Jiangsu province are also analyzed.The conclusions are：the energy intensity of production sector in13 cities is the most important factor to reduce carbon emissions,but the contribution of different factors in different cities increased year by year during the period 2005 to 2014;The growth of Per capita GDP is the main driving factor for the increase of carbon emissions in different cities,but its contribution is decreasing year by year;The contribution of energy structure change in the 13 cities is low and the contribution gap between different cities is small;The contribution of industrial structure change in different cities is increasing year by year and the ranking is not stable;The population of people in each city contributes the least to the change in carbon emissions in each city,and it is not the main driving factor of carbon emissions in Jiangsu province.