对外直接投资与中国全球价值链分工地位升级:基于“一带一路”的视角

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and China's Upgrading in Global Value Chains: In View of the “Belt and Road” Initiative

使用增加值贸易的核算方法对26个"一带一路"沿线国家的全球价值链分工参与指数和地位指数进行分析,结果显示:虽然我国在2011年的全球价值链地位指数与"一带一路"沿线国家相比仅排名第16位,但总体呈上升趋势。利用随机效应模型以及系统GMM方法,分别对静态面板数据和动态面板数据进行实证检验,重点分析一国对外直接投资对其全球价值链分工地位升级的影响,结果表明:对外直接投资对一国全球价值链升级有显著的促进作用。这一结论对我国同样适用。有鉴于此,我国应在既定的对外投资战略指引下充分释放投资潜能,优化对外直接投资环境、完善相关政策机制,合理调整产业结构、加速资源整合,挖掘自身比较优势,构建以我国为主导的"一带一路"区域价值链。

Using value added trade accounting method, this paper calculates the GVC participation indices and GVC position indices of China and 26 countries along the ＂Belt and Road＂ during the period of 1999-2011. It indicates that China＇s GVC position index shows an upward trend although it only ranks no.16 in comparison to other sample countries. We use the random effect model and system GMM, combined with static and dynamic panel data, to test the effect of a country＇s outward foreign direct investment on the upgrading of its position in global value chains. The empirical test shows that outward foreign direct investment has a significant positive impact on a country＇s upgrading of position in global value chains, which also holds true for China. It is of significance to China＇s implementation of the ＂Belt and Road＂ initiative. China needs to fully release its potential in outward foreign direct investment under the guide of the existing outward investment strategy, improve the environment for OFDI and relevant policy mechanisms, adjust industrial structure and accelerate the integration of resources, and exploit its own comparative advantages to gradually construct the regional value chains centered on itself in the ＂Belt and Road＂ region.