“一带一路”背景下广东省物流水平对其出口贸易的影响——基于引力模型的实证研究

Impact of Guangdong Province's Logistics on Its Export under the Background of the Belt and Road Initiative——an Empirical Study based on the Gravity Model

"一带一路"倡议为出口贸易发展带来了机遇,对外贸易和物流水平密切相关,因此,本文研究了在此背景下广东省物流对出口的影响以探索物流改进方向。本文将广东省物流水平和"一带一路"变量引入贸易引力模型,用广义最小二乘法对变量进行回归,回归结果表明,提高物流水平可以削弱距离对出口的阻碍,增强亚太经合组织和"一带一路"倡议的积极效应,其中,港口效率和公路运输效率提高10%分别可以使出口额增长11.4%和5.2%。

The Belt and Road initiative creates development opportunities for export. As there is a strong relationshipbetween international trade and logistics, the impact of logistics on export under the new background is studied to find waysof promoting Guangdong Province’s export by improving logistics. An augmented Gravity Model is built by regarding theBelt and Road initiative as a dummy variable and adding variables representing Guangdong Province’s logistics to theGravity Model. Generalized Least Square method is used to make regression analysis for these variables, and the regressionshows that enhancing Guangdong Province’s logistics can lower export barriers caused by distance, and boost the positiveeffects generated by APEC and the Belt and Road initiative. Specifically, if the port efficiency and road efficiency isimproved respectively by 10%, the export volumes will increase by 11.4% and 5.2%. So it is concluded that GuangdongProvince can boost export by putting more effort in improving port and road efficiency.