代际职业流动的制度分析

An Institutional Analysis of the Intergenerational Occupational Mobility

代际社会流动标志着社会发展进步的整体状态,是社会阶层结构变迁的指示器。本文主要使用多项logit的方法测算不同因素对子代职业流动的影响,并试图用诺思的"人格化交易"和"有限准入秩序"的思想解释中国代际职业流动性及代际职业继承性的特征与影响机制。实证结果表明,人格化交易导致代际机会不均等,就业渠道不通畅;随着制度变迁,以代际职业继承为基准,农村子女的代际向下流动的可能性倾向高于城镇,向上流动的可能性倾向低于城镇;有限准入秩序不利于社会阶层流动。

Intergenerational social mobility marks the overall state of social development and progress,and it is an indicator of changes in social stratification.This article mainly uses multinomial logit model to measure the impact of different factors on children's career mobility.Moreover,the study attempts to explain the characteristics and influence mechanisms of intergenerational occupational mobility and intergenerational occupational inheritance by using North's"personalized transactions"and"limited access order"theory.The empirical results show that personalized transactions lead to unequal intergenerational occupational mobility.As the institutions experienced changes,compared with the intergenerational occupational inheritance,the probability of the intergenerational downward mobility of rural children is higher than that of urban children,the probability of upward mobility of rural children is lower than that of urban children.Limited access order inhibits social mobility.