我国生态旅游对农牧户减贫的非线性效应研究

Research on the Non-linear Effect of Eco-tourism on the Poverty Reduction on the Agricultural and Pastoral Households

文章采用非线性STR模型,以内蒙古通辽市为例,分析生态旅游对生态脆弱地区农牧户减贫效应的非线性影响效应。研究结论表明:Granger因果检验显示,生态旅游发展水平对农牧户贫困程度存在单向影响关系;农牧户贫困程度的变动具有极强的惯性和累积性,上一期贫困程度和上一期生态旅游发展水平对当期农牧户贫困程度都有显著影响;贫困程度变化具有典型的非线性效应,并体现出阶段性特征。其中,2005-2007年为线性特征,2008-2012年存在非线性效应,2013-2016年为线性特征,但其中2015-2016年有向非线性效应转换的趋势。这种线性与非线性之间的转换关系基本反映了通辽地区十一年来生态旅游发展水平和贫困程度的变化态势。结果说明要使生态旅游达到更大减贫效果,需加强生态旅游的长期规划,推动生态旅游与人民收入的均衡性发展。

Based on the non-linear STR model,this paper analyzes the non-linear effects of eco-tourism on the poverty reduction effect of farmers in the ecological vulnerable areas. The results show that as follows. The Granger causality test shows that the level of eco-tourism development has a unidirectional influence on the poverty level of the farmers. The degree of poverty and the level of ecological tourism in the last stage have a significant impact on the poverty level of the farmers in the current period. The change of poverty degree has the typical nonlinear effect and the periodical characteristic. Among them,the linear characteristics of 2005-2007 and 2013-2016 were linear,and the non-linear effects were observed from 2008 to 2012. Among them,there is a trend towards nonlinear effect conversion in 2015-2016. The transformation relationship between linear and non-linear is basically a reflection of the development level and poverty level of eco-tourism in the region in the past 11 years. In order to achieve greater poverty reduction effect,ecological tourism should be strengthened in the long-term planning and promote the balanced development of ecotourism and people’s income.