N-J水电工程实施阶段风险评价

Construction Phase Risk Assessment for the Pakistan Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project

为了对巴基斯坦N-J水电站施工阶段进行风险评价、综合全面地分析风险因素,采用改进的模糊网络分析法进行施工阶段分析。模糊网络分析法将德尔菲法、三角模糊数及网络分析法进行有机结合,相比以往的方法具有更好的准确性,既保留了网络分析法本身能考虑不同层次元素之间及同一层次元素之间的相互作用的优点,又增加了数据的＂专家性＂和模糊性。在综合分析巴基斯坦工程实施环境特点的基础上,建立了项目风险评价指标体系,应用改进的模糊网络分析法对巴基斯坦N-J水电项目实施阶段进行风险评价。评价结果与工程实施中所遇到的风险情况基本一致,可为今后类似国际工程的风险评价提供一定的参考。

The improved fuzzy network analysis method was applied to a comprehensive risk assessment of the construction phase risks in the Neelum-Jhelum Hydropower Project in Pakistan.The comprehensive and integrated analysis for risk factors and the reasonable risk assessment can help the contractors achieving the timely control the construction risks.With the combination of the Delphi Method,the Triangle Fuzzy Number method and the Network Analysis Method,an improved fuzzy network analysis method not only preserves the advantages of the network analysis method which can take the interaction of elements between various levels and the same level into consideration,but also increases＂expertise＂and fuzziness of the data.As a result,the innovative approach leads to a more accurate evaluation.Based on this comprehensive analysis on Pakistan＇s construction environment characteristics,the risk evaluation index system on the subject project has been established.And the improved fuzzy network analysis method has been employed to evaluate the risks in the construction stage of Neelum-Jhelum hydropower project in Pakistan.The evaluation results are identical with the most of the actual project risks that have been encountered during the construction stage,which can provide reference for the similar international projects in the future.