大饥荒与宗教信仰——基于CGSS数据的微观分析

The Great Famine and Religious Choice:The Microeconomic analysis based on the CGSS data

文章采用2010—2013年中国综合社会调查(CGSS)微观数据,发现大饥荒对于个人宗教信仰选择具有长期影响。实证结果表明,在控制其他变量影响的情况下,成年时期经历过大饥荒的人群更加倾向于选择信仰宗教,并且考虑流动人口、DID方法和安慰剂(placebo)检验下的回归结果也非常稳健。同时,基于宗教社会网络模型和宗教事后保障模型,文章发现社交动机和个人健康状况是两者的重要影响机制。最后,文章提出了相应的政策建议。

Based on the binary selection model of China Comprehensive Social Survey（ CGSS） in2010-2013,this paper finds that the great famine has a long-term effect on the choice of personal religious belief. The results of the measurement show that,in the case of controlling other variables,the people who experienced the famine on their adult years will be more inclined to believe in religion,and the regression results which consider floating population,DID method and placebo test are very robust. At the same time,based on the model of religious social network and the model of religious postwar protection,this paper finds that social motivation and personal health are the important influence mechanism. Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.