财政纵向失衡与公共支出结构偏向:理论机制诠释与中国经验证据

Vertical Fiscal Imbalance and the Structural Bias of Public Expenditure:Interpretation of Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Evidence in China

面临经济新常态下人口红利与资源红利日趋消减的双重约束,从财政体制改革这一全新视域诠释我国公共支出结构偏向问题不仅是全面深化改革纵深推进的关键所在,也有利于通过释放财政体制改革红利助推经济增长动力新机制的重构。为此,本文首先从理论层面系统诠释财政纵向失衡与公共支出结构偏向之间的作用机制,然后通过构建财政纵向失衡的指标体系对我国财政纵向失衡程度进行全面测度,继而通过建立动态面板数据模型与采取系统GMM估计实证考察财政纵向失衡对我国公共支出结构偏向的影响,结果发现我国财政纵向失衡不仅从制度层面显著影响了地方政府公共支出行为的选择,而且伴随财政纵向失衡程度的上升地方政府公共支出结构偏向问题更加严重。另外,地方政府公共支出结构偏向在我国具有较强的惯性或递延效应。

Facing the dual constraints of China＇s new normal that demographic dividend and resource bonus increasingly weakened, interpreting the structural bias of public expenditure from the perspective of fiscal system reform is not only the key to comprehensively deepen reform carried forward, but also in favor of reconstructing the new motivation mechanisms of economic growth by the releasing dividend of fiscal system reform. This paper first expounds systematically the mechanism between the interpretation of the vertical fiscal imbalance and public expenditure structure from the theoretical level. And then, we try to measure comprehensively the level of China＇s VFI by constructing the index system of VFI. After that, this paper provides an empirical research on the effects of VFI on the deviation of public expenditure structure through establishing dynamic panel data model and using the system GMM method. We not only find that China＇s VFI has significant influence on the behavior choice of the local government public expenditure from the institutional level, but also the deflection of public expenditure structure tends to be more serious with the rising degree of VFI. In addition, the public expenditure structural bias of local government has strong inertia or deferred effect in China.