FDI持续流入对中国经济增长与就业的驱动效应研究——基于LMDI模型的再检验

Study on the Driving Effect of FDI Continuous Inflow on Chinese Economic Growth and Employment——A Retesting Based on LMDI Model

基于2001～2015年中国31个省份FDI与经济增长和就业的样本数据,采用LMDI分解模型对FDI对经济增长和就业的动态驱动效应进行了实证分析。结果表明,FDI对经济增长和就业变动总效应分解后的活动效应、结构效应和效率效应呈显著差异性特征,即FDI的活动效应对经济增长和就业变动的总效应贡献最大,整体呈显著正相关关系,是造成总效应显著为正的主要原因;FDI的结构效应对经济增长和就业变动的总效应贡献不够显著且呈微弱的非显性正相关关系,地区投向结构不尽合理现象依旧凸显;FDI的效率效应对经济增长和就业变动的总效应贡献显著为负,多数省份仍处于外资低效率利用状态。

Based on the sample data of Chinese 31 provinces＇ FDI, economic growth and employment from 2000 to 2015, the paper empirically analyzes the dynamic driving effect of FDI on economic growth and employment by LMDI decomposition model. Results show that different influencing effects of FDI on economic growth and employment presents significant different characteristics, that is, the activity effect contributes the most to the total effect and shows obvious positive correlation, which is the main reason for striking positive of the total effect. The structural effect of FDI is insignificant and shows a weak positive correlation, which reveals that the phenomenon of investment structure unreasonable is still prominent. While the contribution of efficiency effect on the total effect is remarkable negative, and further shows the use of foreign capital in most provinces is still in the inefficient.