企业职工统筹账户自平衡性与财政负担

Self-equilibrium of Socially Pooled Account of Enterprise Employees and Fiscal Burden

我国基本养老保险制度的变迁转轨导致统筹账户养老金的计发方式变得更加复杂。本文考虑参保人员性别、职别、入职和退休时点的差异,从流量角度对企业职工统筹账户建立财政负担及自平衡性分析的精算模型。基于动态人口,测算了未来财政负担的统筹账户养老金规模及精算平衡率,结果显示:2020年统筹账户出现代际失衡,由财政负担的统筹账户养老金以平均每年16.57%的速率增长。养老保险实际缴费基数远低于应缴基数,是造成统筹账户精算失衡的重要因素。虽然变动一些经济指标,如降低工资增长率可减少财政负担的规模,但无法避免账户出现代际失衡。

In China,the transition of basic pension insurance system makes the calculation and distribution of pension in socially pooled account more complicated. In view of the difference in gender,official rank,entry and retirement of the insured,an actuarial model of fiscal burden and self-equilibrium analysis for enterprise employees' socially pooled account is set up. Based on dynamic population,this paper calculates the pension size disbursed by government finance and actuarial balance rate and the results shows that socially pooled account will present intergenerational imbalance by 2020 and pension in socially pooled account disbursed by government finance increases at an average annual rate of16. 57%. The fact that the actual social insurance base of pension is far lower than the due insurance base is an important factor that causes actuarial imbalance. Although the change of some economic indicators such as lowering wage growth would alleviate fiscal burden,the intergenerational imbalance is inevitable.