东北地区人口外流对经济增长影响的实证研究

The Influence of Population Outflow on Economic Growth in Northeast China

近年来,东北地区经济增长遇到了瓶颈,黑吉辽三省经济增长速度全部位于全国倒数,转型难、经济增长乏力等问题成为了东北地区不得不面对的问题。以柯布·道格拉斯生产函数为基础,对2000—2015年东北地区劳动力要素和资本要素面板数据进行整理,分析其对经济增长的影响。回归结果表明:相较于全国其他人口净流出地区,劳动力要素对东北地区经济增长的影响更大;资本要素对东北地区经济增长的影响则显著低于其他人口净流出省份。为了解决这一问题,必须提高东北地区资本和劳动力市场的市场化程度,市场化程度不足是东北地区一系列问题的关键所在。

In recent years, the economic growth of northeast encountered a bottleneck. The economic growth rate of Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning lagged behind in our country. The difficulty of transition and thesluggish economic growth have already became the most important problem for the three provinces to solve. Sothis paper collated the panel data of labor force and capital factors in Northeast China from 2000 to 2015 andanalyzed its impact on economic growth based on the Cobb-Douglas production function. The regression resultsshow that the labor force has greater impact on the economic growth for Northeast China compared with otherpopulation outflow areas. And the impact of capital factors on the economic growth in Northeast China is significantly lower than that in other population net outflow provinces. To solve this problem, we must improve themarketization degree of capital market and labor market in Northeast China. The lack of marketization is thekey to a series of problems in Northeast China now.