基于模糊Petri网的气象灾害应急能力评估

Evaluation of meteorological disaster emergency capability based on fuzzy Petri net

在气象灾害应急能力评估过程中,为降低应急能力影响因素的模糊性、不确定性对评估结果准确性的影响,提出一种基于模糊Petri网(fuzzy Petri net,FPN)的气象灾害应急能力评估方法。首先对气象灾害应急能力影响因素进行分析,建立一个包括6个二级指标和27个三级指标的层次化评价指标体系;然后根据模糊Petri网定义给出模糊推理算法;最后将应急能力评价指标体系转换为FPN模型,进行应急能力评估。实例分析表明,应用模糊Petri网的气象灾害应急能力评估简单方便,易于实现。

In order to reduce the influence of ambiguity and uncertainty on the accuracy of assessment results,based on fuzzy Petri net（ FPN）,a meteorological disaster emergency was proposed in the process of meteorological disaster emergency assessment. Firstly,the influencing factors of meteorological disaster emergency capability were analyzed,and a hierarchical evaluation index system including six secondary indicators and twenty seven third indexes was established. Then,the fuzzy reasoning algorithm was given according to the definition of FPN. Finally,the evaluation index system of emergency capability was transformed into a FPN model to assess the emergency capability. A case analysis shows that the application of FPN on weather disaster emergency capability assessment is simple and easy to implement.