1996—2013年河南省耕地数量时空动态变化及其特征分析

Study on spatial-temporal dynamic change of cultivated land quantity and variation characteristics in Henan province during 1996—2103

为掌握1996—2013年河南省耕地数量时空动态变化特征,以河南省为研究对象,运用5种耕地变化测度模型,揭示其内在的变化规律,为耕地利用调控机制与政策完善提供支撑。结果表明:(1)1996—2013年河南省耕地数量总体呈下降趋势,耕地减少的主要原因是建设占用和生态退耕;(2)河南省各地级市之间的耕地数量空间差异在逐渐扩大,对区域差异分析可知,耕地区位指数越大、聚集程度越高,耕地相对变化越小,而耕地区位指数越小、聚集程度越低,耕地相对变化则越明显,该特征反映了耕地聚集程度对区域耕地相对变化的影响;(3)1996—2013年河南省耕地重心和经济重心都向南偏移,移动轨迹方向相反,表现出较强的相关性,说明经济的发展与耕地的减少是同步的,因此,在发展经济的同时也要考虑耕地可持续发展问题;(4)应依据以上对耕地利用变化特征及其与社会经济发展的关联性,提出合理的耕地保护建议和措施。

In order to study spatial-temporal changes of cultivated land quantity and its variations in Henan province during 1996—2103,five measure models were used to analyse the internal changes and provide supports for the cultivated land regulation and policy. The results show that：（ 1） cultivated land in Henan province showed a downward trend mainly because construction land expansion and ecological cropland-conversion during 1996—2013;（ 2） the spatial difference of cultivated land quantity was large and had regional differences.The higher the index of cultivated land location,the smaller the relative change of cultivated land. The smaller the cultivated land area index,the higher relative change of cultivated land. It reflected the effects of the aggregation degree of regional cultivated land on arable land changes;（ 3） the cultivated land gravity and economic gravity southward migration and moving track is contrary. It indicated that the development of economy and the reducing of the cultivated land were synchronous;（ 4） We should be based on the characteristics of cultivated land change and its correlation with social and economic development to build a long-term based cultivated land regulation and policy system.