安倍执政五年的日本经济:持续缓慢上行与政策调整

The Japanese Economy in the Period of Abe 's Five Years in Power: Continuous Slow Uptrend and Structural Contradiction

日本经济自安倍第二次内阁组建之初,就开始了新的周期上行阶段,直至2017年底形成了战后持续时间第二长的大型经济景气,俗称"安倍经济学景气"。其前期(2015年年末之前),在安倍经济政策推动下明确了经济复苏的方向,并取得了一定的改善,但受到提高消费税率的影响经济复苏趋势弱化,之后经济进入稳步的上行阶段。2016年以来经济状况大幅改善。这次经济上行不仅持续时间长,而且改善领域扩大和有一定的力度。五年来安倍政权进行了重大的政策调整,即由原来的以扩大需求为重点的安倍经济学,转向了以"人才培育革命"和"生产率革命"为两大支柱的供给政策。今后日本经济走向还存在很大的不确定性,取决于国内外有利和不利因素的综合作用。

From the beginning of the formation of Abe＇ s second cabinet, the Japanese economy started a new cycle uptrend period. Until the end of 2017, the second longest economic boom in postwar history was formed, it is commonly known as ＂Abeconomics boom＂. In the earlier phase（before mid 2015）, driven by Abe＇ s economic policy, the direction of economic recovery has been clarified and some improvements have been made. But with the impact of higher consumer tax rates, economic recovery is weakening, the economy then entered into a steady upward phase and the economic situation has improved significantly since 2016. This economic uplift not only lasts a long time, but also extends the area of improvement and has a certain strength. In the past five years, Abe regime has carried on the significant policy adjustment, namely from Abe economics, focusing on the expanding demand shifted to ＂talent cultivating revolution＂ and ＂productivity revolution＂ as the two pillars of the supply policy. Japan＇s economy is likely to remain stable and steady for years to come.