基于百分位数法的中国空气质量改善效果评估分析

Evaluation of the ambient air quality improvement in China based on percentile method

为更好地说清楚《大气污染防治行动计划》实施以来,我国环境空气质量状况、变化趋势及存在可能的风险,基于百分位数法和算术平均值法,分别对全国及重点区域空气质量改善效果开展评估分析.结果表明,我国目前业务上广泛应用的算术平均值法对空气质量评价与管理起到了积极推动作用,促进了空气质量持续改善.随着治污减排措施的持续推进,区域空气质量改善进程呈现显著的时空差异特征,现行评价技术方法局限性逐渐凸显出来.百分位数法可以在算术平均值法的基础上,补充评价时段内高、低浓度的分布规律和变化特征,有助于全面、客观、准确描述空气质量状况.本文提出的研究方法,对于完善我国空气质量评价方法具有重要意义.

To better understand the present status,future trends and possible risks of environment air quality since the implementation of the ＂Air Pollution Prevention Action Plan ＂,the percentile method and arithmetic mean method were used to evaluate the effect of air quality improvement throughout China,respectively. The results show that the arithmetic mean method currently widely applied has played a positive role in making decisions of environment management and promoting environmental air quality improvement. Along with the continuous improvement of pollution control and emission reduction measures,the regional air quality improvement process has presented significantly different characteristics in both spatial and temporal scales,and thus the limitations of the current evaluation method have emerged gradually. The percentile method can provide distribution and variation characteristics of high and low concentrations within an evaluation period comparing to the arithmetic mean method,which is helpful in describing the air quality situation in a more comprehensive,objective and accurate manner. The thinking and methods we proposed will have broad significance for improving air quality evaluation methods in China.