地铁12号线开通对14号线客流预测敏感性分析

The Sensitivity analysis on passenger flow of Line 14 based on Line 12 open operations

地铁新线的开通会对城市既有线网的客流造成一定的影响,线路路由选择是影响客流大小的关键敏感性因素,关系到客流预测的准确性。选择乘车时间、换乘时间、换乘次数3个因素建立广义费用函数,然后建立一种基于改进Logit模型的流量分配算法。以西安地铁12号线开通对14号线客流预测的敏感性分析为例,分析12、14号线的网络结构,运用分配算法计算12号线开通后12、14号线的机场客流配流结果以及14号线机场客流向12号线的转移比率。研究结果表明,若12号线按时开通运营,将发挥更大的网络效应,14号线客流的27.2%转移至12号线。

The opening of the new subway will cause some influence on the passenger flow of the existing network.The route selection is the key sensitive factor which affects the passenger flow size,which is related to the accuracy of the passenger flow forecast.In this paper,the generalized cost function is established by choosing three factors：travel time,transfer time and transfer times.Secondly,a traffic distribution algorithm based on improved Logit model is established.Taking the sensitivity analysis of passenger flow forecast on Line 14 for the opening of Xi＇an Metro Line 12 as an example,the network structure of Line 14 and Line 12 is analyzed.Finally,this paper presents the line 12 and line 14 line of the airport passenger flow distribution results and the transfer rate from the 14 th line airport passenger flow to the line 12 after the opening of the line 12.The result shows that if the line 12 opened operations,it will produce a greater network effect,so make that the 27.2% airport passenger flow on the line 14 transfer to the line 12.