基于关联分析及堆栈自编码器的气象敏感负荷功率估算方法

Estimation method of meteorological sensitive load power based on correlation analysis and stacked auto-encoder

气象敏感负荷的逐年增长是夏季电网负荷不断攀升的重要原因,准确估算此类负荷功率对电网运行调度、估计地区需求侧响应能力均有益处。提出了改进典型相关分析方法,建立了负荷-气象非线性关联模型,基于此可计算历史负荷数据中的气象敏感负荷功率。建立了基于堆栈自编码器(SAE)的气象敏感负荷功率估算模型,利用SAE的无监督学习提取日负荷曲线的降维特征,利用关联模型的计算结果作为有标签样本训练估算模型的全连接层,从而由日负荷曲线直接获得气象敏感负荷功率曲线。基于实际电网数据的算例结果验证了所提方法的有效性。

The annual increase of meteorological sensitive load is an important reason for the increasing load of grid in summer and correct estimation of such load power is beneficial to the operation scheduling of power grid and the estimation of regional demand side response. An improved typical correlation analysis method is proposed, and a load-meteorology nonlinear correlation model is established, based on which, the meteorological sensitive load power in the historical load data can be calculated. An estimation model of meteorological sensitive load based on SAE （ Stacked Auto-Encoder） is established. The unsupervised learning ability of SAE is utilized to extract the dimension reduction characteristics of daily load curve, and the calculative results of the correlation model is used as a label sample to train the full connection layers of the estimation model, thus the meteorological sensitive load power curve can be obtained directly by the daily load curve. Results of an example based on actual grid data verify the validity of the proposed methods.