人民币实际汇率波动的新视角——基于NOEM模型的实证研究

New Perspective of RMB Real Exchange Rate Fluctuation——Empirical Research Based on NOEM Model

论文基于新开放经济宏观经济学框架建立了一个具有微观基础的实际汇率决定模型,基于理论模型和国内外的现实进行扩展,实证检验了五类因素对人民币实际汇率波动的影响。实证结果表明,人民币名义汇率的浮动弹性对人民币实际汇率波动具有最强的解释力,贸易条件和国内外相对货币供应量次之,相对生产率由于巴萨效应在中国的传导渠道不畅通,因而对人民币实际汇率波动的解释力有限,净外部资产的解释力最弱,仅能引起人民币实际汇率小幅波动。本文认为,目前人民币不适合过度自由的浮动弹性,应继续渐进放开弹性以保持实际汇率相对稳定,货币政策和产业结构优化政策都可以成为调节人民币实际汇率的手段。

The paper establishes a model of real exchange rate decision based on NOEM. Based on theoretical model and realities at home and abroad to expand, the paper makes an empirical test about the five factors impacting on the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation. The results show that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform has the strongest explanatory power for the RMB real exchange rate fluctuation, terms of trade and relative money supply has the second explanatory power, relative productivity＇s explanatory power is limited because the channel of B-S effect is not smooth in China, net foreign assets has the weakest explanatory power and can only lead to real exchange rate fluctuation slightly. The paper concludes that the RMB is not suitable for excessive free-floating, progressive flexibility should be continued to maintain for relatively stable of RMB real exchange rate. Monetary policy and industrial structure optimization policy can become a means of real exchange rate adjustment.