基于道路交通安全综合风险水平的城市模糊聚类评价

Urban Fuzzy Cluster Evaluation Based on Integrated Risk Level of Traffic Safety

为了评价城市系统对其道路交通安全综合风险控制子系统的影响作用,应用系统动力学相关理论,对城市系统间影响作用进行分析,提出了城市道路交通安全综合风险水平和交通事故的绝对损害系数的概念.以综合风险水平为外部表征量,以系统内部构成要素为指针,借助绝对损害系数,应用相关系数距离识别等方法构建聚类评价指标体系;在此基础上,针对性研究模糊C均值(FCM)聚类的具体应用方法.研究表明:城市道路交通安全综合风险水平可以作为城市系统间影响作用的一个表征量;以绝对损害系数为参照,能够构建8个指标构成的具有正相关性的评价指标体系;应用所提聚类评价方法,能够对不同规模城市系统进行模糊聚类,聚类结果可以横向等级量化评价城市系统对其道路交通安全综合风险控制子系统的影响作用.

In order to evaluate the influence of urban system to subsystem controlled by integrated risk of traffic safety,the influence among urban system was analyzed with theories on system dynamics and the definitions of integrated risk level of urban traffic safety and absolute damage coefficient of traffic accidents were put forward.Cluster evaluation index system was constructed with integrated risk level as exterior representation index,with elements of internal system as pointer,borrowing the way of absolute damage coefficient and applying the method of coefficient distance recognition.On the basis of these,the application method of fuzzy c-means（FCM）cluster was intentionally researched.It is shown that integrated risk level of urban traffic safety can be used as an representation index on the influence among urban system;evaluation system with positive correlation consisting of eight indicators can be built with absolute damage coefficient as reference;the cluster evaluation method in application research can be used to do fuzzy cluster to the urban system in different scale and the results of clustering can laterally quantize and evaluate the influence of urban system to the subsystem controlled by integrated risk of traffic safety in grades.