渝西片区1970—2014年气候变化特征及其对生产潜力的影响

Climate Change and Its Impact on Potential Productivity:In Western Chongqing During 1970-2014

本研究收集了重庆西部永川区、江津区、合川区、大足区、綦江区、荣昌区、铜梁区、璧山区、潼南区1970—2014年逐年温度和降水资料,分析了渝西片区近45年来农业气候资源及气候与农业生产力的同步变动关系,揭示了渝西片区气候变化对农业生产力的影响,提出农业气候资源开发利用的对策和建议,以期为农业生产趋利避害,真正发挥气象在为农服务中的作用。结果表明:渝西片区1970—2014年平均气温呈一致上升的趋势,且上升趋势较为显著;年降雨量整体呈下降的趋势,但趋势表现不明显;气候生产力整体呈微弱的下降趋势,趋势不明显。气温或者降水量任一要素增加,均能使气候生产力上升,但降水是影响渝西片区气候生产力的主要因素。过去45年中,不同时期的气候生产力与气候环境共同形成不同的发展特征,表现为"冷湿型"、"暖干型"、"冷干型"3种类型,并依次呈现出逐渐降低的生产力水平。渝西西部的气候生产力对气温的平均敏感程度最高,而北部的气候生产力对降水的平均敏感程度最高。

Based on year-by-year temperature and precipitation data during 1970-2014 from Yongchuan,Jiangjin, Hechuan, Dazu, Qijiang, Rongchang, Tongliang, Bishan, and Tongnan districts in western Chongqing,the authors analyzed the synchronous change relationship of agro-climatic resources and climate withagricultural productivity in western Chongqing, revealed the influence of climate change on agriculturalproductivity and put forward countermeasures and suggestions for the development and utilization of agro-climatic resources, in order to help farmers take advantage of favorable climatic conditions while avoidingadverse climatic effects on agricultural production and promote the meteorological service to agriculture. Theresults showed that： all these districts experienced significant year-by-year rise in annual average temperatureand mild downward trends in annual precipitation during 1970-2014; the climatic productivity maintained aslight downward trend overall; an increase in temperature or precipitation could result in the increase ofclimatic productivity, but precipitation was the main factor influencing the climatic productivity; based onclimatic productivity and climatic conditions, the agricultural development in western Chongqing in the past 45 years could be divided into three modes：＂cold and humid＂,＂warm and dry＂and＂cold and dry＂, indescending order of productivity. The western part of western Chongqing exhibited the highest averagesensitivity of climatic productivity to temperature, and the northern part had the highest average sensitivity of climatic productivity to precipitation.