省际地方公债对中国经济可持续性增长的收入阈值效应

Income Threshold Effect of Provincial Municipal Bonds on Chinese Sustainable Economic Development

地方公债对于经济可持续增长作用机制比较复杂,其中重要的是判断二者是否具有阈值效应,并确定处于阈值不同区域范围的公债债务率对于经济增长影响机制存在的结构性差异,从而科学地判断地方公债的效率和风险状态及进行相应的管理。本文基于中国省际面板数据,从财政收入的角度引入阈值效应,探讨省际地方公债对中国经济可持续性增长的影响机制。研究结果表明,地方公债对于经济增长存在着显著的收入阈值效应,地方公债债务率与经济可持续性增长之间存在左侧拉平的S型关系,第一个转折点约在120%附近,左侧坡度较缓,右侧坡度较陡;第二个转折点约在140%附近,不同的阈值范围内呈现出地方公债对中国经济的差异性影响机制。收入阈值效应的精准量化结论为中国公债政策设计与完善等提供了新的参考依据。本文结论较有价值的政策启示是,我国经济欠发达地区发债起步晚,尽管当前其债务普遍高于经济发达地区,但对经济增长的效应也十分明显。因此,可在加强债务风险管理的基础上,适当增加发债规模,对此中央财政也可给予一定的政策支持。

The mechanism of municipal bonds on economic sustainable growth is more complex. It is important to judge whether the two parties have the threshold effect to determine the structural differences in the mechanism of the effect of the debt ratio on the economic growth in different regions of the threshold,and to judge the efficiency of municipal bonds scientifically,the risk state and the corresponding management. Based on China＇s inter provincial panel data,this paper introduces the threshold effect from the perspective of fiscal revenue,and discusses the influence mechanism of provincial municipal bonds on China＇s sustainable economic growth. The results show that municipal bonds have significant threshold effect on economic growth,there is a left-flattened S-shaped relationship between municipal bonds and economic sustainable development,the first turning point is about 120%,in the vicinity of which the left side of the slope is relatively slow,the right side of the slope is steep; the second turning point is about 140%,different threshold ranges show different influencing mechanisms of municipal bonds on China＇s economy. The precise quantitative conclusion of this paper provides an important scientific basis for the design and improvement of China＇s municipal bonds policy. The conclusion of the conclusion of this paper is that the debt issuance of the less developed areas in China is late. Although the current debt is generally higher than the economically developed area,the effect on economic growth is very obvious. Therefore,on the basis of strengthening the management of debt risk,the debt scale can be properly increased,and the central finance can also be given some policy support.