基于VAR的中美高技术产品贸易失衡分析

An Analysis of Trade Imbalance of High-tech Products between China and U.S.based on VAR Model

目前,美国在中美高技术产品贸易中处于贸易逆差地位,中美高技术产品贸易出现"反比较优势"现象,其根本原因在于美国在高技术产品领域对中国进行了严格的管制,外资对华高技术产品加工生产工业的产业转移与中国技术创新能力的提高也是中美高技术产品贸易失衡的重要原因。通过建立VAR模型,本文对中美高技术产品贸易失衡的特点进行点评,实证分析对美国技术出口管制、外商直接投资与中国技术水平的提高对两国间的高技术产品贸易失衡的影响程度,并提出中国的应对措施与政策建议。

At present,America is in the deficit position in high-tech products trade between China and U. S.. The root cause of ＂ anti-comparative advantage＂ is U. S. ＇ s strict export control to China in high-tech products trade. In addition,the FDI in high-tech products field,the industrial transfer and China＇s growing scientific and technological innovation capacity contribute to the phenomenon of trade imbalance of high-tech products between China and U. S.. Through the establishment of the VAR model,this paper analyses the characteristics of trade imbalance of high-tech products between two countries,and emphatically analyses the degree of negative impact of U. S. export controls,FDI and the improvement of China＇s technical level on trade imbalance of high-tech products. Based on these,this paper puts forward countermeasures and policy suggestions.