中国动态拨备制度的实施效果评价

Evaluation of the Implementation Effect of China's Dynamic Provisioning

顺应国际金融监管改革趋势,中国于2011年正式引入动态拨备制度。然而,目前该制度实施周期较短,仍处于不断探索与完善阶段,实施效果有待科学评价。本文总结了中国动态拨备制度的整体框架和基本设置,在明确动态拨备制度理念和目标的基础上,运用指标数据分析和实证分析相结合,考察了中国动态拨备制度的总体实施效果。结果表明,虽然中国银行业和选取的代表性商业银行基本达到了动态拨备的监管标准,但制度的实施并没有发挥出统计上显著的逆周期特征,而且还存在商业银行利用动态拨备进行资本操纵和利润平滑的现象。对此,本文借鉴国际成功经验,有针对性地提出了完善动态拨备制度的政策建议。

In accordance with the international trend in financial supervision reform, China officially started to implement dynamic provisioning in 2011. However, since it has been implemented for a relatively short period of time, the system needs to be improved on the basis of sufficient investigation and research, and in particular, the effect of the implementation needs to be evaluated. This paper tries to describe the overall framework and basic set-up of China＇s dynamic provisioning system. Based on a clear description of the concept and objectives of dynamic provisioning, the analyses of the indicator data and empirical data are applied to investigate the overall implementation effect of dynamic provisioning. The results show that although the Chinese banking industry and the commercial banks selected for observation have met the basic regulatory standards of dynamic provisioning, but the implementation of dynamic provisioning does not show a statistically significant countercyclicality. Furthermore, some commercial banks also take the advantage of dynamic provisioning to manipulate capital and smooth profits. In this regard, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions to improve the dynamic provisioning system by drawing on the successful international experience.