复杂载荷下深水顶张式立管屈曲失效风险分析

Risk Analysis on Buckling Failure of Deepwater TTRs Under Complex Loads

研究了深水顶张式立管在极端环境载荷、第三方破坏载荷以及材料腐蚀等多种复杂载荷条件下立管的结构屈曲失效风险,并考虑海洋立管风险分析中不加以区分的立管类型与失效形式,采用新的非基于事故统计的方法探究其规律,进行风险辨识.为了研究深水顶张式立管的屈曲失效风险,通过复杂载荷条件下结构致灾机理的辨识建立多立管状态下的故障树模型,采用海洋工程领域中应用较为成熟的专家综合评估法及模糊故障树法进行风险分析,最终从概率及后果两个维度给出屈曲失效薄弱环节.通过实例分析、计算,验证本文提出方法的适用性和可靠性,并得出对深海资源开发有参考价值的结论.

The risk of structural buckling failure of deepwater top tensioned riser（TTR）under various complex load conditions,e. g. extreme environment loads,damage loads from third parties,and material corrosion was re-searched. And it considered riser types and failure types which were not differentiated in marine riser risk analyses. Anew method which is not based on engineering accident statistics was used to investigate its failure rules to identify risk. To study the buckling failure risk of deepwater TTRs,a multiple-riser-state fault tree model was constructedby identifying structural failure mechanism under complex loads,and a risk analysis was made using experts compre-hensive evaluation analysis（ECEA）and fuzzy fault tree analysis（FFTA）which are maturely applied in ocean engineer-ing. Eventually,the analysis indicates weak buckling failure modes by considering their probabilities and conse-quences. The usability and reliability of the proposed method are verified by case study and calculation,and then the conclusion is obtained,which can be referenced in deep-sea resource development.