财政预算软约束视角下地方政府投资冲动研究

Research on the Investment Impulse of Local Government from the Perspective of Fiscal Soft Budget Constraints

随着财政预算软约束问题的加剧导致了地方政府缺少相关的财务约束,忽视了盲目的投资所带来的过度负债。如何"硬"化预算软约束、缓解地方财政赤字压力是解决当前地方政府债务问题的重要任务之一。文章在理论基础上分析了预算软约束和政府投资冲动之间的关联性,并选取了2008-2017年的预算软约束资金的来源要素变量所对应的面板数据,利用固定效应模型和多元回归方法验证了各种变量对全国东、中、西部地区固定资产投资的影响。研究结果表明:财政预算软约束问题是导致地方政府投资冲动的原因,不同的预算软约束资金来源会给我国带来财政赤字问题。文章根据模型的估测结果,提出了硬化地方政府预算软约束和缓解地方过度投资的建议。

With the aggravation of the fiscal soft budget constraints,the local government,which lacks relevant financial constraints,ignores the excessive debt caused by blind investment. How to＂harden＂soft budget constraints and alleviate the pressure of local fiscal deficit is one of the important tasks to solve the problem of local government debt. This paper makes a theoretical analysis on the relationship between the soft budget constraints and the government investment impulse. The paper,by selecting the panel data corresponding to the source factor variables of soft budget constraints fund from 2008 to 2017,applies the fixed effect model and the multiple regression method to verify the effects of various variables on fixed assets investment in China＇s eastern,central and western regions. The results show that the problem of fiscal soft budget constraints is the cause of local government investment impulse,and the sources of funding with different soft budget constraints will bring about the financial deficit to China. Based on the estimated results of the model,the paper puts forth proposals to harden the soft budget constraints of local government and alleviate local excessive investment.