延边地区农业面源污染的环境库兹涅茨曲线验证与分析

Authentication and analysis of Environmental Kuznets curve for agricultural non-point source pollution in Yanbian Area

运用2004—2015年时序数据,对延边地区化肥投入密度、农膜投入量、农药投入量及畜禽粪尿猪粪当量排泄密度与农业人均总产值的环境库茨涅茨曲线(EKC)关系进行拟合和验证。结果表明:化肥投入密度与农业人均总产值呈"U"型曲线关系,且现阶段处于"U"型曲线的右侧,随经济的发展,化肥带来的环境压力会加重;农膜与农药的投入量与农业人均总产值呈倒"U"型曲线关系,现阶段都已经过转折点,随经济的发展,农膜与农药带来的环境压力在降低;畜禽粪尿猪粪当量排泄密度与农业人均总产值呈"N"型曲线关系,现阶段处于第2个转折点右侧,其污染状况再次出现恶化趋势,结合上述结果,政府应着重加大对化肥及畜禽养殖业的管理力度。

Based on the data from 2004—2015,the Environmental Kuznets Curve（EKC）model was used to verify and fit input density of chemical fertilizer,input chemical pesticide,input chemical films,output density of pig fecal equivalent of the livestock manure emission and per capita output value of agricultural in Yanbian area.The results showed that,the relationship between input chemical pesticide and per capita output value of agricultural was fitted by a typical U-shaped curve and in the right side of the U-shaped curve at present which suggested that the environment pressure caused by chemical fertilizer would be further increased with the growth of agricultural economy;The relationship between input chemical pesticide and chemical films was fitted by an inverted U-shaped curve,it has been a turning point which suggesting that,the pollution of chemical pesticide and chemical films would be decreased with the development of economy;The relationship between pig fecal equivalent of the livestock manure emission and per capita output value of agricultural was fitted by an N-shaped curve and in the right side of the second turning point at present suggesting that the pollution status would be further increased again,In conclusion,the govern-ment should focus on strengthening the management of chemical fertilizer and livestock and poultry industry.