珠江口咸潮入侵预警预报模拟模型研究现状与发展趋势

Current Situation of Research and Development on Saltwater Intrusion Simulation Model of the Pearl River Estuary

近年来,珠江三角洲咸潮入侵出现不断加强的趋势,对珠三角城市群构成整体威胁,对珠江口咸潮的模拟预警能力目前还比较薄弱。本研究从数值模拟模型、遥感反演模型以及同化研究方法三个方面分析现有珠江口咸潮入侵的模拟模型的成果与不足,据此提出遥感反演信息和数值模拟模型的耦合研究,构建珠江口咸潮入侵数值模拟的遥感同化模型,以提高咸潮预警预报的精度。对促进珠江口咸潮遥感机理、数值模拟理论和数据同化方法的进一步发展提出科学依据。

In recent years, the Pearl River Delta saltwater intrusion has been increasingly intensified which poses the overall threat to the Pearl River Delta city group. At present, the simulation of early warning ability of the Pearl River Estuary salinity is relatively weak. Therefore, the paper analyses three aspects of numerical simulation model,inversion model and assimilation analysis method to find the achievements and shortcomings of the existing simulation models. Accordingly, more researches are carried out such as saltwater intrusion simulation model of the Pearl River, coupling numerical simulation model of remote sensing inversion and construction of the Pearl River Estuary salinity remote sensing assimilation model of intrusion numerical simulation to improve the prediction accuracy of the early warning of saltwater intrusion. This paper has important significance to promoting the further development of the Pearl River Estuary salinity data assimilation theory and method of remote sensing mechanism and numerical simulation.