北京市影子银行规模及其对北京市房价的影响分析

An Analysis on Scale of Shadow Bank and Its Effect of House Price in Beijing

影子银行体系作为正式银行系统的补充,正成为房地产行业另一重要的融资渠道,其对房价变动的影响和对政策效果的冲击十分值得关注。从测算北京市的影子银行规模入手分析北京市影子银行体系的发展,采用向量自回归模型进一步探究北京市影子银行规模与北京市房价之间的关系,结果发现北京市影子银行的规模不断扩大,其与北京市房价之间具有长期协整关系,其变动会对北京市房价产生正向冲击的影响,且影响力在不断上升。

Shadow bank system serves as a complement to the formal bank system,and becomes an important financing channel to the real estate industry. The paper has analyzed the scale of shadow bank of Beijing,and the relationship between the scale of shadow bank and house price of Beijing based on VAR Model. The conclusions include： The scale of shadow bank is expanding in Beijing,and it has a long-term co-integration with house price of Beijing. It will have a change in same direction on Beijing ＇s house price when the scale of shadow bank changes. The influence of shadow bank to house price is increasing.