对油藏研究中不确定性分析工作的探讨

Discussion on Uncertainty Analysis of Reservoir Research

油藏不确定性研究是目前各油藏研究项目的必备环节和各大油藏研究软件平台的必备模块。本文基于文献调研和实例开发项目样本,通过对比研究和总结归纳,对不确定性的概念、特点、研究意义及管控方法进行了系统论述。油藏研究中的不确定性主要是由地下地质体的复杂性和数据资料的有限性导致,具有时效性和阶段性的特点。通过对油藏的不确定性研究,可在一定程度上弱化经验方法在工作中的影响,加强决策的精细化程度。

Reservoir uncertainty research is currently the essential part of reservoir research projects and also necessary module of major reservoir research software. Based on literature survey and development project case, through the method of contrastive study and summary, the uncertainty concept, characteristics, research significance and control measures are systematically discussed in this paper. The uncertainty in reservoir research is mainly caused by the complexity of subsurface geological body and limited data which is usually showing the features of timeliness and phases. Through the research of reservoir uncertainty, it can weake influence of experience on work and enhance the refinement degree of decision.