中国省域城镇化的资源环境承载力响应及影响因素

Response Relationship and Its Influencing Factors of Carrying Capacity of Resource and Environment in China's Provincial Urbanization

构建指标体系评估了近15年城镇化系统与资源环境系统的发展状况,通过曲线拟合分析二者的响应关系测度了城镇化的资源环境承载力响应指数,最后运用回归分析模型探析了影响该响应关系演变的因素。结果显示:中国城镇化持续推进所带来的高消耗、高污染已超过资源环境系统阀值,整体资源环境承载力下降,资源环境治理改善速度滞后于城镇化变动速率,造成城镇化的资源环境承载力响应关系整体呈正响应向负响应演变的态势。究其根源,长期以来绿色技术转化欠佳,环境制度安排不合理,环保治理投入利用效率低,造成技术创新的促进效果不显著,环境规制难以发挥绿色引流作用,环保亦治理失效,城镇化带来的资源环境压力难以化解。由此揭示:应制定激励型环保政策,大力推进智能制造,推动节能减排,提升绿色引流效应,从根本上改善各地区资源环境承载力。

This paper constructs index system and evaluates the development of urbanization system and resource environment system in the past 15 years. The response relationship between the two is analyzed by curve fitting,and the response index of resource environment carrying capacity of urbanization is measured. Finally,the factors influencing the evolution of the response relationship are analyzed by regression analysis model. The results show that the high consumption and high pollution caused by the continuous urbanization of China have exceeded the threshold of the resource and environment system and the overall resource and environment carrying capacity has decreased. It has been found that the improvement rate of resource and environment management is lagging behind the rate of urbanization change so that the overall response relationship of the resource environment carrying capacity of urbanization shows a trend of going from＂positive response＂to＂negative response＂. The reasons are the poor transfer of green technology,the improper arrangement of environmental regime and the low efficiency of environmental protection investment,which result in inefficient technological innovation,ineffective environmental regulations,invalid environmental protection and solid environmental pressure from urbanization.Therefore,it is suggested that incentive environmental policies should be formulated to vigorously promote intelligent manufacturing,to promote energy conservation and emission reduction and to enhance green lead effect and fundamentally improve the carrying capacity of resources and environment in various regions.