资本流动突停能引发银行危机吗?——基于61个新兴市场国家样本的实证分析

Can Capital Flow Stoppage Lead to Bank Crisis?——An Empirical Analysis Based on the Sample of 61 Emerging Market Countries

选取61个新兴市场国家的1990—2014年的面板数据,从流入驱动型资本突停、流出驱动型资本突停、净流入型资本突停三个方面实证研究了新兴市场国家资本流动突停对银行危机的影响。实证结果表明:在新兴市场国家流出驱动型资本突停对银行危机的影响不显著,流入驱动型资本突停会显著增加银行危机爆发的概率,净流入型资本突停会增加银行危机爆发的概率。因此应对资本流动突停加强监控,防止资本突停造成银行危机。

Adopting the panel data of 61 emerging market countries from 1990 to 2014,this paper studies the impact of capital market stoppage on bank crisis in emerging market countries from the perspectives of three types of stoppage,namely the ones of the influx of driving capital,of outflow-driven capital and of net inflow capital. The empirical results show that the outflow of driven capital stoppage in the emerging market countries has no significant effect on the banking crisis. The inflow of the driven capital stoppage will significantly increase the probability of the bank crisis. The outflow of the net inflow capital stoppage will increase the probability of the bank crisis. Therefore,it is advised to increase the monitoring of the sudden stoppage of capital so as to prevent the bank crisis.