农业现代化、新型工业化与城镇化协调发展研究——基于中国1998—2015年三大经济地带的面板数据分析

Study on the Coordinated Development of Agricultural Modernization,New Industrialization and Urbanization——Panel Analysis Based on China's Three Major Economic Zonesin 1998—2015 Years

文章以中国大陆三大经济地带的31个省(直辖市、自治区)1998—2015年面板数据为样本,运用PVAR模型研究农业现代化、新型工业化与城镇化的长期均衡关系。研究表明:(1)静态依赖性受经济发展阶段和区域功能定位影响,全国整体呈现正向作用,表明农业机械程度在提高,区域之间差异显著;(2)全国整体显示农业现代化与新型工业化正向作用,中部地带正处于工业化进程,新型工业化对农业现代化需求弹性最高,而西部地带和东部地带需求弹性都小;(3)整体来讲全国城镇化变化正向促进农业现代化,区域之间差异不明显。同时,提出相应建议。

In China,the three major economic zones of 31 each autonomous region from1998 to 2015 panel data as sample,paper use PVAR model to analyze the long-term equilibrium relationship of agricultural modernization,new industrialization and urbanization. Research shows that： 1） the static dependence is affected by the economic development stage and the regional functional orientation,and the whole country has a positive effect; 2） the whole show the positive effect of agricultural modernization and new industrialization,the middle zone with the process of industrialization is the highest demand elasticity,western region and eastern region have small demand elasticity; 3） As a whole,the change of urbanization in China is promoting agricultural modernization,which is no difference between regions. At the same time,put forward corresponding suggestions.