宏观审慎政策对货币政策向债券市场传导的影响研究

The Impact of Macro-prudential Policy on Monetary Policy Transmission to Bond Market

2016年以来,宏观审慎政策逐步成为我国金融调控的双支柱之一。在新的金融调控框架下,"货币政策—债券市场—实体经济"的传导机制也在逐步发生变化。将中国宏观审慎评估指标纳入货币政策向债券市场传导的研究框架中发现,在新的金融调控框架下,货币政策向短端债券收益率的传导有效性提升,但长端传导仍不畅,MPA考核有助于提高债券收益率的可预测性,同时也对中长期债券收益率有系统性抬升的效应。未来应继续健全宏观审慎政策框架,并配合货币政策实施节奏,更好地将货币政策目标和金融稳定结合起来,加强价格型货币政策对债券市场的主动引导性,创新监管政策工具以提升货币政策对长期限无风险利率的传导作用,以及加大MPA考核的透明度,并根据结果给予差别化管理。

Since 2016,macro-prudential policies have gradually become one of the two pillars of China's financial regulation. Under the new financial regulatory framework,the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy-bond market-real economy is also gradually changing. By incorporating China's macro-prudential assessment indicators into the research framework of the monetary policy transmission to the bond market,it is found that,under the new financial regulatory framework,the transmission effectiveness of monetary policy to short-end bond yields has been enhanced,but the long-end transmission is still inadequate. MPA assessment helps to improve the predictability of bond yields,and it also has a systematic uplift effect on the yield of medium and long-term bonds. In the future,we should continue to improve the macro-prudential policy framework,according to the pace of monetary policy implementation,integrating monetary policy objectives with financial stability,strengthening the active guidance of price-based monetary policy on the bond market,and innovating regulatory policy tools to enhance the transmission of monetary policy to long-term risk-free interest rates,as well as the transparency of MPA assessments with the differentiated management based on the results.