新型城镇化背景下综合交通客货运输需求分析与预测——以湖北省为例

Analysis and Prediction of Comprehensive Passenger and Freight Transport Demand in New Urbanization:A Case Study of Hubei

通过研究新型城镇化背景下区域综合交通需求趋势及特征,并在传统基于社会经济与人口基础预测综合交通客货运量的基础上,增加了城镇化水平作为考虑因素,以湖北省为例,采用二次指数平滑预测法、多元线性回归预测法和弹性系数法进行预测,在此基础上,运用等权平均组合预测法,预测了新型城镇化背景下湖北省2017-2020年及2030年综合交通客货运输需求量,为综合交通发展适应城镇化运输需求提供参考。

In this paper, through studying the trend and characteristics of the regional comprehensive transport demand in the context of new urbanization, we forecast the volume of the comprehensive passenger and freight transport business based on the socio-economic and demographic statistics, added in the level of urbanization as a factor for consideration and in the case of Hubei, used the secondary exponential smoothing forecasting method, multiple linear regression forecasting method and elasticity coefficient method for the prediction of the transport demand of the province. On such basis, we applied the equal-weighted average combination forecasting method to the comprehensive passenger and freight transport demand of Hubei for the period of 2017-2020 and the year of 2030 under the background of new urbanization.