彩民命运控制与问题购彩的关系:基于意义维持模型的视角

Fate control and problem lottery playing: The perspective of meaning maintenance

中国彩民在购彩过程中表现出更多的命运控制信念,但是命运控制对我国彩民问题购彩的影响及其作用机制少有研究涉及。在意义维持模型的视角下,本研究构建了一个多重中介模型,考察命运控制对问题购彩的影响以及逃避动机、控制幻觉和预期在其中的作用机制。本研究采用问卷法对2241名体育彩民进行调查,结果发现:(1)命运控制、逃避动机、控制幻觉、预期和问题购彩呈显著正相关;(2)命运控制不仅可以直接预测问题购彩,还可以通过5条路径的间接作用影响彩民的问题购彩:逃避动机的中介作用,控制幻觉的中介作用,预期的中介作用,逃避动机和控制幻觉的序列中介作用,逃避动机和预期的序列中介作用。

Problem lottery playing has received increasing attention nowadays. Previous studies reveal that lottery-specific beliefs, such as lottery attitudes, risk perception, and irrational belief, play significant roles in the development and maintenance of problem lottery playing which are mostly based on social-cognitive theory or theory of planned behavior. Few studies have investigated the relationship between general belief and problem lottery playing. Fate control, as an important general belief, provides an account of our experiences and is also a form of meaning. Studies have shown that fate control is correlate with various psychological indicators（e.g., negative affect, study intention, and problem gambling）, and it is particularly strong in Asian cultures. However, little is known about the effect of fate control on problem lottery playing and its mediators explaining this relationship. In the perspective of meaning maintenance model, this study aimed to examine the effect of fate control on problem lottery playing, and the mediating roles of avoidance motivation, illusion of control, and expectation deviation.A sample of 2241 sport lottery players（1592 male, 649 female） were recruited for the study. They were required to complete a battery of self-report questionnaires. Fate control was measured by the subscales of Social Axioms Survey. Avoidance motivation was measured by subscales of lottery playing motivation adapted from five-factor gambling motivation scale. Illusion of control and expectancy were measured by subscales of lottery related cognitions adapted from Gambling Related Cognitions Scale. Problem Gambling Severity Index was adapted to access problem lottery playing. Data was analyzed by using SPSS 17.0 and MPLUS 7.0 whichwas specifically developed for assessing the complex models with the bias-corrected percentile Bootstrap method. The results of the study showed that fate control, avoidance motivation, illusion of control, expectancy were positively related to problem lottery playing; fate control was positively related to avoidance motivation, illusion of control, expectancy; avoidance motivation was positively related to illusion of control and expectancy. Structure equation modeling revealed significant prediction of fate control on avoidance motivation, illusion of control, expectancy and problem lottery playing. Avoidance motivation, illusion of control and expectancy mediated the relationship between fate control and problem lottery playing. Moreover, avoidance motivation could mediate the relationship among fate control, illusion of control and expectancy. The mediating effect contained five paths： the mediating effect of avoidance motivation, of illusion of control, and of expectancy, the serial mediating effect of avoidance motivation and the serial mediating effect of illusion of control, avoidance motivation and expectancy. The present study offers the following major contributions. First, we investigated the effects of fate control on avoidance motivation, illusion of control, expectancy and problem lottery playing, which support the negative side of fate control. Second, the present study explored the meaning maintenance mechanism of fate control on problem lottery playing by identifying the central role of avoidance motivation based on meaning maintenance model, which broadens the research perspectives of problem lottery playing. Third, this study revealed that general fate control belief could indirectly facilitate problem lottery playing through lotteryspecific beliefs.