中国区域碳排放强度影响因素及空间溢出性——基于空间杜宾模型的研究

The Influencing Factors of Regional Carbon Emission Intensity in China and Spatial Spillover

估算了中国1997~2015年30个省(市、自治区)的碳排放强度数据,并利用空间杜宾模型考察中国省际碳排放强度的影响因素及其空间溢出性。结果显示:(1)我国省域碳排放强度具有明显的空间相关特征,碳排放强度水平相似区域倾向于集聚分布。(2)经济发展水平、所有权制度、对外开放水平和外商直接投资的提高可以降低区域碳排放强度,能源结构、能源禀赋、产业结构和城市化水平的提高则会增加区域碳排放强度。(3)技术进步、外商直接投资、对外开放水平、城市化、能源结构和能源禀赋具有显著的空间溢出效应,即以上变量的变动不仅对本地区的碳排放强度产生影响,还会通过空间传导机制辐射至周边地区。(4)优化外商直接投资结构、提高经济增长水平是目前实现碳减排目标的有效途径。最后,依据所得研究结论,提出了碳减排的政策建议。

Based onthe data estimation of China＇s 30 provinces（including municipalities and autonomous regions）from1997 to 2015,this paper,using Spatial Dubin Model,explores the influence factors of China＇s provincial carbon emission intensity and its spatial spillover effects.The results indicate that firstly,an obvious spatial correlation can be found in China＇s provincial carbon emission intensity,as regions of similar level of carbon emission intensity tend to be geographically adjacent to each other.Secondly,economic development,ownership system,further opening up to the outside world and increase in foreign direct investment can work together to lower the carbon emission intensity in a region,while energy structure,energy resources,industry structure and the deepening of urbanization will increase regional carbon emission intensity.Thirdly,technology advances,foreign direct investment,opening up to the outside world,urbanization,energy structure and energy resources all have obvious spatial spillover effects,suggesting that a change in the above-mentioned variables will not only exert influences on the carbon emission intensity in the region,but also extend its radiation effects to the neighboring areas through spatial conduction mechanism.Fourthly,optimizing foreign direct investment structure,and enhancing economic growth constitute an effective approach to achieving the target of carbon emission reduction.Finally,based on its research conclusion,this paper proposes some practical suggestions for policy making on carbon emission intensity.