长三角城市群经济关联、空间溢出与经济增长——基于空间面板计量模型的实证研究

Economic Relevance,Spatial Spillover and Economic Growth of Urban Agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta——An Empirical Study Based on Spatial Panel Metering Model

本文利用长江三角洲城市群2000~2015年26个主要城市数据,构建了三种空间权重矩阵,引入了空间自相关分析方法和空间面板数据模型,探讨长三角城市群区域经济关联模式、区域经济关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应,并运用空间回归模型的偏微分方法实际分解了这种效应。研究发现:不同空间权重下,长三角城市群经济具有极强的空间相关性;城市群经济关联模式不断向高级化演进;长三角城市群经济关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应显著,进一步的效应分解发现城市群经济关联的直接效应为正但统计上不够显著,间接效应显著为正且总体影响系数更大。基于此,提出促进长三角城市群协调发展、推动区域经济关联纵深融合、加速城市群经济关联空间溢出效应释放等政策建议。

In this paper,Based on the data of 26 major urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015,three kinds of spatial weight matrices are constructed,also the spatial autocorrelation analysis method and the spatial panel data model are introduced to explore the regional economic correlation model of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,regional economic correlation and the spillover effect associated with economic growth,moreover,the partial regression method of spatial regression model is used to decompose this effect.The study shows that under different spatial weight matrices,the regional economic growth of the Yangtze River Delta has a strong spatial correlation;The economic linkage pattern of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration is continuously evolving towards a high level;The spatial spillover effect of economic connection and economic growth in the urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River Delta is remarkable.Further decomposition reveals that the direct effect of urban agglomeration is positive but not statistically significant,the indirect effect is significantly positive and the overall impact coefficient is larger.Based on this,the paper puts forward some policy suggestions,such as advancing the coordinated development of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration,promoting the development of regional economic relations in depth and accelerating the release of spatial spillover effects in economic affiliation of urban agglomerations,etc.