乡村旅游发展驱动机制的系统仿真研究——以大连市为例

Study on Simulation of Driving Mechanism of Rural Tourism:A case of Dalian

乡村旅游作为现代旅游业向传统农业延伸的新型产业形式,近年来受到高度重视并逐渐成为农村经济发展的新增长点。由于乡村旅游产业关联度高,带动功能强,其发展受到多方面因素的影响。本文从系统的角度对乡村旅游发展进行研究,构建乡村旅游发展驱动机制的动力学模型,以大连市乡村旅游为例,通过对产业经济、资源环境和社会文化三个子系统参数的调控,模拟出五种乡村旅游发展的驱动模式,分别是:自然发展模式、产业经济主导驱动模式、资源环境主导驱动模式、社会文化主导驱动模式和产业经济—社会文化—资源环境协调发展模式,预测乡村旅游收入、农业总产值、农民人均纯收入和乡村旅游景区面积等变量的动态变化。研究结果表明:产业经济—资源环境—社会文化协调发展模式是大连市乡村旅游发展的最佳模式。结合仿真分析结果,提出了大连市乡村旅游发展的对策建议。

Rural tourism,a new form of industry that extends from modern tourism to traditional agriculture,is highly valued and has become a new growth point for tourism industry.For the high correlation and influence and the strong driving function for other industries,the development of rural tourism needs the coordination of various factors.From the perspective of systematic research and builds a dynamic model of the driving mechanism for the development of rural tourism.this paper establishes the SD model of rural tourism driving mechanism for Dalian.dividing the system of rural tourism driving mechanism into three subsystems as industrial economy subsystem,social culture subsystem and resource environment subsystem.Five driving models of rural tourism development,namely natural development model,industrial economic model,social cultural model,resource environmental model and the coordinated model of industrial economy,social culture and resource environment are proposed and the dynamic change of the variables,such as rural tourism income,total value of agricultural output,rural per capital net income and rural tourism scenic area are predicted through the regulation and control of the parameters of the three subsystems.The result shows that coordinated model of industrial economy,social culture and resource environment is the best model for rural tourism in Dalian and policy advice is suggested for the development of rural tourism in Dalian.