博彩相关认知与问题博彩的关联及其对问题博彩的预测及影响研究——以上海市体育彩票市场为例

Correlation,prediction and influence of gambling related cognition on problem gambling: A case study of Shanghai sports lottery market

采用文献资料、逻辑分析、数理统计等方法,系统分析了我国体育彩票彩民博彩相关认知对问题博彩的预测情况和影响程度,并讨论了对我国问题彩民发展趋势的影响。研究发现:1)彩民在博彩相关认知得分较高时,出现问题博彩的可能性较高;2)彩民解释偏差和无力戒赌两个维度得分提升一个单位,变为问题彩民的几率分别提升14.7%和16.7%;3)彩民解释偏差、控制错觉和无力戒赌三个维度得分提升一个单位时,其购彩行为达到风险水平的几率都有所提升,但受无力戒赌维度的影响,彩民每周消费的次数会有所降低;4)我国体育彩票问题彩民有进一步增长的趋势。

Based on documentation,logical analysis and mathematical statistics,current paper examined the predictive ability of Chinese sports lottery gamblers on problem gambling and the influence on specific gambling behavior,which leads to realize the trend for problem gamblers in China. Findings show that： 1） the probability would raise when gambler got a relative high point in GRC; 2）the probability raise by 14.7% and 16.7% separately,when point raise one unit in two dimension,Interpret bias and non-stop gambling; 3） when the point in Interpret bias,control illusion and Non-stop gambling get a one unit raise,the probability of gambling behaviors to reach the risk threshold will elevate in a certain degree,but gamblers will cut the frequencies of bet per week in the effects of Non-stop gambling; 4） the number of problem gamblers of sports lottery in China will in a trend of further growth.