政治稳定一定促进经济增长吗?——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的动态门槛面板模型分析

Does Political Stability Necessarily Promote Economic Growth?——An Analysis Based on the Dynamic Threshold Panel Model of Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

文章根据"一带一路"沿线64个国家在1996-2015年间的数据,采用动态门槛面板模型检验政治稳定对经济增长的非线性影响,结果发现:其一,总体来看,政治稳定对地区经济增长具有显著的促进作用;其二,政治稳定与经济增长之间具有非线性关系,存在不同经济区间下政治稳定差异化的经济影响;其三,政治稳定的经济效应具有三个门槛值,人均GDP低于2 807美元为第一和第二门槛区间,其政治稳定促进经济增长效应不明显;高于2 807美元的第三和第四门槛区间国家,政治稳定性显著地刺激经济增长,越来越多的"一带一路"沿线国家进入到此门槛,说明政治稳定对"一带一路"沿线国家经济增长的刺激效应正在日益显著。可见,"一带一路"推进下的国际合作至关重要,利用双边或多边合作促进经济增长,进一步释放政治稳定对经济的刺激作用。

The paper, based on the data of 64 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative from 1996 to 2015, applies the dy- namic threshold panel model to examine the nonlinear effect of political stability on economic growth. The results shows that： Flatly, in general, the political stability has a significant positive effect on regional economic growth; Secondly, there is an non- linear relationship between political stability and economic growth, and the economic effect of political stability is different in different economic ranges; Thirdly, The economic effect of political stability has three threshoht values： If the per capita GDP is lower than US $ 2807, which is the first and second threshold, the promoting eflbe! of political stability on econonfic growth is not obvious. If the per capita GDP is higher than the US $ 2807, which is the countries in the third mad fourth threshold, the po- litical stability significantly stimulates economic growth, and more and more countries along the Belt and Road Initiative have en- tered this threshold, which demonstrates that the stimulating effect of political stability on the eeonomic growth of countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is becoming increasingly significant. Obviously, the Belt and Road Initiative is of great significance to promoting the international cooperation, facilitating the economic growth by bilateral or multilateral cooperation, and further releasing the sti,nulating eft^ct of political stability on the economy.