中国对“一带一路”沿线国家制造业出口效率分析——基于随机前沿引力模型

An Analysis of China's Manufacturing Export Efficiency to the Countries along the Belt and Road Initiative——Based on the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model

文章通过构建随机前沿出口引力模型,利用2005-2015年中国与"一带一路"沿线42个国家的面板数据分析了中国对其沿线国家制造业出口的效率、潜力及其影响因素。研究结果表明:中国对"一带一路"沿线国家的制造业出口效率较低,出口潜力巨大;影响中国制造业出口的主要因素是进口国基础设施建设水平和通关便利度等。基于以上结论,文章认为为了提高我国向"一带一路"沿线国家的制造业出口效率,在政策选择过程中通关便利度和基础设施建设水平是最重要的政策方向。因此,我国要加强与"一带一路"沿线国家的产能合作,通过优势互补以完善进口国基础设施;同时加强双边贸易建设及海关、认证认可等方面的合作,深化区域通关一体化合作,改善进口国贸易便利化条件。

The paper, through the construction of export stochaslic frontier gravity model, using the panel data of China and 42 countries along the Belt and Road Initiative from 2005 to 2015, analyzes China＇s manufacturing export effieieney, export pote tial and influencing factors to these countries. The resuhs show that the export efficiency of China＇s manufacturing to the countries along the Belt and Road Initiative is low and the export potential is big. The main factors affecting Chinese manufacturing export are the level of infrastructure construction and the degree of customs clearance facilitation of importing countries. Based on the above conclusions, the paper believes that customs clearance convenience and the level of infrastructure construction tu＇e the most important policy direction in the policy selection process in order to improve the export efficiency of China＇s manufactur- ing to the countries ＇along the Belt and Road Initiative. Theretore, China should strengthen the cooperation in the production ca- pacity with the countries ＇along the Belt and Road Initiative, improve the infrastructure of importing countries through the comple- mentary advantages. Moreover, China should strengthe~＇x the construetion of bilateral trade ~md the cooperation in customs, ac- creditation and other aspects, deepen the cooperation in regional customs clearance integration and improve the conditions for trade facilitation of importing countries.