陕西省直管县财政体制改革的政策效应研究——基于县级面板数据的实证分析

A Study on the Policy Effects of Fiscal System Reform of Province-Managing-County in Shaanxi Province——An Empirical Analysis Based on the County-level Panel Data

文章基于陕西省2006-2015年的面板数据,采用自然实验的倍差法模型估计,分别从静态和动态角度分析了陕西省直管县财政改革方面的效应。静态模型研究发现省直管县改革的整体政策效应明显,省直管县改革显著地提高了县级政府的财政收入,每年约提高16.8个百分点。同时,省直管县改革还显著地提高了县级政府的财政自给率,县级政府的财政自给率因省直管县改革的实施每年约提高246个百分点。但并没有促进农民纯收入的提高。同时,模型分析还发现改革是一个渐进的过程,政策效应是长期累积的结果,至少需要五年的时间才能看出改革成效。

This paper, based on tile panel data of Shaanxi province from 2006 to 2015, and applying the difference-in-difference estimation of a natural experiment, analyzes the effects of fiscal reform of Province-Managing-County in Shaanxi province from both static and dynamic perspectives respectively. The static model study shows that the overall policy effects of Province-Man- aging-County reform is obvious. The reform of Province-Managing-County has significantly increased the revenues of the countylevel governments, increasing by 16.8 percent per year. Meanwhile, the reform of Province-Managing-County has also signifi- cantly improved the financial self-sufficiency capacity of the county-level governments, and the financial self-sufficiency capacity of the county-level governments increases about 246 percent per year because of the implementation of Province-Managing-County reform. However, it does not promote the increase of farmers＇ net income. Moreover, tire model analysis also finds that the reform is a gradual process. The policy effects are the long-term cumulative resuhs, which take at least five years to present the effectiveness of reform.