中国经济波动的收缩性和趋势性研究

Study on the Contractility and Trend of Economic Fluctuations in China

进入"十三五"以来,随着供给侧结构性改革和创新驱动战略的全面实施,我国经济增长过程中的趋势性特征越发明显,经济周期波动呈现出新的态势。通过对经济波动主要来源的定量分解和检验,从总供给和总需求的角度,对我国主要宏观经济指标的趋势性特征进行了描述和检验。文章认为,进入经济新常态以来经济增速下滑与以往的周期性收缩有所不同,本轮经济收缩是我国经济增长进入新时代的主要特征。我国经济运行已经实现触底反弹,并开始逐步企稳。未来一个时期将保持"软扩张"的增长态势,并形成一轮稳定持续的经济增长长波。

Since the ＂Thirteenth Five-year Plan＂ period, the trend characteristics in China＇s economic growth process have become more apparent, and the economic cycle has shown a new situation, with the full implementation of supply-side structural reform and innovation driven development strategy. We have described and tested the trend characteristics of major macroeconomic indicators in China from the perspective of aggregate supply and aggregate demand,by quantitatively decomposing and testing the main sources of economic fluctuations. We find that since entering the new normal, the decline in economic growth has been different from the previous cyclical contraction. This economic contraction is the main feature of China＇s economic growth entering a new era. The in-depth study shows that China＇s economic operation has achieved a bottoming-out rebound and began to gradually stabilize. In the coming period,the growth of ＂soft expansion＂ will be maintained and a steady and sustained economic long wave will be formed.