货币政策透明度对通胀预期偏差影响的研究

A Study of the Impact of Monetary Policy Transparency on the Deviation of Inflation Expectation

通过放松理性预期假设,引入有偏性预期构建一个非完美预期模型,采用SVAR方法考察货币政策透明度结构冲击对预期偏差波动的影响在两种货币政策操作框架下是否存在一致性,得出结论:提高货币政策透明度是否有利于降低预期偏差与实际通胀率偏离均衡通胀率的程度有关。同时,价格型货币政策框架下提高货币政策透明度更能有效锚定通胀预期,降低通胀预期偏差;数量型货币政策框架下通胀预期偏差对政策工具反应呈现较小的粘性,且货币供给量对通胀预期偏差的影响要强于价格型货币政策框架。为此,若要引导公众预期与政策形成合力,应在使用价格型工具时强化货币政策透明度;若要发挥政策工具的逆周期调节作用,应在使用数量型工具时弱化货币政策透明度。

Through the hypothesis of loosening the rational expectations and by introducing a biased expectation to construct a non-perfect expectation model, this paper adopts the SVAR model to investigate whether there is a consistence of the impacts of the structure shock of monetary policy transparency on the expected deviation fluctuation under the two operational frameworks of monetary policy. The result indicates that whether the improvement of the transparency of monetary policy is conducive to reducing the expected deviation is related to the extent of the deviation of the actual inflation rate from the equilibrium inflation rate. Meanwhile, under the monetary policy framework of price type, the improvement of monetary policy transparency can anchor inflation expectations and reduce the deviation of inflation expectations more effectively; while under the monetary policy framework of scalar type, the deviation of inflation expectation has less stickiness to the policy instruments,and the monetary aggregate has a stronger influence on the deviation of inflation expectation than that under the monetary policy of framework of price type. To this end, in order to guide the public expectations to form a joint force with policy, the transparency of monetary policy should be strengthened when using the price instrument; and in order to give full play to the policy instruments in the counter-cyclical adjustment, the transparency of monetary policy should be weakened when using the scalar-type instruments.