贸易政策不确定性与出口企业利润变动——基于中美贸易的实证分析

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Profit Changes of Export Enterprises:An Empirical Analysis Based on Sino-US Trade

出口企业的利润很容易受到贸易政策环境的影响,运用2000—2006年中国微观企业数据,实证研究了贸易政策不确定性对于出口企业利润水平的短期影响和长期影响。研究发现:无论在短期还是在长期,贸易政策不确定性的下降对出口企业利润水平都产生了显著的促进作用,贸易开放是重要的中介传导机制。具体而言,在空间分布上,贸易政策不确定性对出口企业利润率的作用遵循边际演化规律;在时间维度上,贸易政策不确定性对出口企业利润净增长率的作用主要通过"提高利润创造"渠道来体现。

The profit of export enterprises is easily affected by the trade policy environment. This paper uses the data of Chinese micro enterprises from 2000 to 2006 to conduct an empirical study of the short-term and long-term influences of the trade policy uncertainty on the profit levels of the export enterprises. The findings show that, whether in the short-term or in the long-term, the decrease of trade policy uncertainty can significantly promote the profitability of the export enterprises, trade openness is an important intermediary transmission mechanism. Specifically, the effect of trade policy uncertainty on the profit rate of the export enterprises follows the law of marginal evolution in the spatial distribution; while in the time dimension, the effect of trade policy uncertainty on the net profit growth rate of the export enterprises is mainly realized through the channel of ＂ improving profit creation.＂