风险认知、风险管理与农险需求——基于行为金融视角的实证研究

Risk Perception,Risk Management and Agricultural Insurance Demand:An Empirical Research from the Perspective of Behavioral Finance

文章基于行为金融分析框架,构造风险认知、风险管理、保险认知、保险负担、农业情感五类行为变量,利用湖北省351户微观调研数据检验农户天气指数保险决策的影响因素。结果表明:获得无偿现金援助机会、家庭劳动力比重及土壤灌溉条件等风险认知和管理因素是影响农户农业保险需求的最主要因素,农户农业保险决策显著受到慈善困境效应的影响。进一步通过专家咨询法和层次分析法对五类因素进行排序,其影响程度依次为风险管理、风险认知、保险负担、保险认知和农业情感。优化农户农业保险决策过程,促进农业保险市场供给侧结构性改革,要求在增强农户农险支付能力的同时,注重农户农业风险的认知及管理;同时,亦要有效提升农户农业保险认知和农业情感投入。

Figuring out farmers' agricultural insurance decision-making process and its contributors is of great theoretical and practical significance to the supply-side structural reform of agricultural insurance market. Based on the analysis framework of behavioral finance,the paper constructed five groups of behavioral factors: risk perception,risk management,insurance affordability,insurance recognition and agricultural affection,and used the survey data of 351 households in Hubei P rovince to examine these factors on agricultural insurance decision making. The results showed that risk perception and management factors such as opportunities of getting non-reimbursable relief,household labor proportion and soil irrigation condition are the major determinants of farmers' agricultural insurance demand. Their insurance decision making is significantly affected by Samaritan's dilemma. Furthermore,expert consultation method and analytic hierarchy process were used to sort the five categories of variables,which are risk management,risk perception,insurance affordability,insurance recognition and agricultural affection according to their influence order. To optimize the insurance decision making and promote the supply-side structural reform of agricultural insurance market,we need to emphasize risk perception and management as well as enhancing farmers' insurance affordability. In the meantime,their insurance awareness and affection on agriculture have to be improved.