基于通径分析的四川省交通碳排放驱动机理研究

Driving Mechanism of Traffic Carbon Emissions in Sichuan Province Based on Path Analysis

为深入分析交通运输碳排放内在驱动机理,以1995—2014年四川省实测数据为例,应用ASIF数据构造原理和逐步回归方法识别有效驱动因子,并由通径分析获取其对行业碳排放增长的直接和间接效应.结果表明:经济强度、运输强度、相对结构和能耗强度是驱动行业碳排放的关键因子;经济强度是碳排放最主要的决策因子,其对碳排放的直接拉动效应明显;运输强度和相对结构对碳排放的影响依赖于经济强度的刺激,而能耗强度几乎可直接作用于碳排放;随着运输化的逐步推进,四川省的运输强度和能耗强度均有一定程度改善,但仍不足以抵消经济强度稳步上行所引致的行业碳排放增长.

To further analyze the internal driving mechanism of carbon emissions in the transportation industry,this paper takes the measurement data of Sichuan Province during 1995 to 2014 as an example. Then ASIF data structural principles and stepwise regression methods are used to identify the valid driving factors. Furthermore,the direct and indirect effect of each factor on carbon emissions＇ growth is obtained by path analysis. The result shows that economic intensity, transportation intensity, relative structure and energy consumption intensity are the primary factors affecting the carbon emissions there. Economic intensity is the dominant determiner of carbon emissions, and its direct pull on that is remarkable. The effects of transportation intensity and relative structure on carbon emissions are motivated strongly by economic strength, while energy intensity can apply directly to that. It can be confirmed that the transportation and energy consumption intensity improves at a certain extent in Sichuan Province with the promotion of its transportation industry, but it still not enough to offset the growth of carbon emissions which led by the economic strength steadily ascending.