基于ARMA模型的浙江省农村金融容量缺口研究

The Rur al Financial Capacity Gap in Zhejiang Pr ovince: A Resear ch Based on ARMA Model

作为农村经济社会发展较好的浙江,农村金融抑制问题依然严峻,容量缺口依然存在。以戈德·史密斯的理论为基础,在把握浙江省农村金融容量的动态特征的基础上,估算了2000—2015年浙江农村金融的资金缺口值和缺口率,然后运用ARMA模型拟合并预测了2016—2020年浙江省农村的金融缺口值。在此基础上,从增加供给、引入竞争提高效率和强化制度建设3个方面提出金融支撑农村社会经济发展的对策建议。

The rural financial constraints in Zhejiang is still grim,capacity gap still exists. Based on the theory of Goldsmith,this paper estimates the capital gap and the gap rate of Zhejiang rural finance from 2000 to 2015 on the basis of grasping the dynamic characteristics of rural financial system in Zhejiang Province. The financial gap of rural areas in the province from 2016 to 2020 is fitted and forecast,using ARMA model. Some suggestions are given regarding the support for the rural social and economic development from three aspects：increasing supply,introducing competition,improving efficiency and strengthening system construction.